Contrarian liquidity grab strategy: exploits the failure of a new high/low (false breakout) to enter in the opposite direction, catching trapped traders.
ForexIndicesCrypto
Typical R/R
1:2 — 1:4
Win Rate
50–58%
Timeframe
1H, 4H, Daily
Category
Price Action
[ STRATEGY SCHEMA ]
[ MARKET LOGIC ]
When price breaks a significant high or low but cannot sustain the move, traders who entered on the breakout remain trapped. The rapid return inside the previous range forces them to close at a loss, fueling the opposite move.
PROS
Catches reversals with tight stop
High probability on strong levels
CONS
Requires experience in timing
False signals on weak levels
What are the setup conditions for Turtle Soup?
1
Identify a significant high or low (at least 20 periods)
2
Price breaks that level but with weak range and volume
3
Within 1-3 candles price returns below/above the broken level
4
Confirmation candle in the opposite direction of the false breakout
Which filters improve the quality of the signal?
The failed breakout must occur on a level with history (more previous touches)
Low volume on the breakout, increasing on the return
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